'Round the Sphere: The "R" Word

Several bloggers have picked up on the analysis by IMS, which indicated that Drug sales in the U.S. grew at their slowest pace since 1961 (see "Drug Sales in U.S. Grow at Slower Pace").

This, IMS says, is due to "cheaper copies of top-selling medicines [flooding] the market and U.S. regulators [approving] fewer new products."

Meanwhile, there seems to be a question if generic drugs are as good as brand name drugs (see "Are Generics Worse Than Brand-Name Drugs?" over at WSJ Health Blog). If generics are not competitive to brand name drugs, then market forces should be working in favor of the brand name drug industry.

Also, that remark about regulators approving fewer brand name drugs is deceptive: it could be that drug companies are submitting fewer NDAs for approval! Which leads me to ask over at Pharma Marketing Blog "Is the Pharma Industry in a Recession?" What do you think? Take the poll over there at the top of the right hand column.

Pharm Aid blog today asks: "Has Pharma Hit the Bottom?," which is a weird idea considering economists are just now agreeing the rest of the U.S. economy is in recession!

"In financial markets," says Pharm Aid, "you usually hit the bottom when the news is the worst. And the news can’t get much worse for pharma."

How's that? There was still GROWTH last year, but at a SLOWER pace. Recession, on the other hand, means DECLINE. And that's what I am asking. Will there be a decline in drug sales across the board?

Maybe not. But there could be decline in pharma advertising and marketing spending. Wouldn't that be worse? (Worse for me, anyway.)

Anyway, just thought I'd throw this out there for discussion.